Unemployment may return to spring in the case of the second wave of coronavirus

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The expert noted that the situation with the average salary is unlikely to improve significantly soon, especially in the service sector.

The second wave of the epidemic may cost many Ukrainians / REUTERS

The unemployment situation may return to spring in the event of a second wave of coronavirus and the return of the state to strict quarantine.

The expert on the labor market Tatyana Pashkina reported about it in the comment to UNIAN.

“The situation on the labor market may return to the spring in the case of the second wave of coronavirus. Because we no longer have that margin of safety. And if in the spring people could hold out with a certain financial margin, now people can not. They failed to form a financial a pillow, ”she said.

Pashkina noted that labor migration to other countries in the current situation is also complicated, which exacerbates the problems in the labor market in Ukraine.

“We are now very dependent on how the quarantine will go (in other countries – UNIAN). We have, for example, the second wave of coronavirus in the Czech Republic, and this is our employment partner. We have big problems with Germany in terms of vacancies. Therefore, those Ukrainians , who had part-time jobs in European countries, now do not have it, “she said.

In addition, the expert noted that the situation with the average salary is unlikely to improve significantly soon, especially in the service sector.

“The market will not allow you to pay a high salary at all. Now we have fewer impulsive purchases. Therefore, sometimes when an employer would like to pay more, it cannot do so. The market for services has narrowed, so objectively wages may also be lower,” she said. Pashkin.

According to the expert, the lack of a clear state strategy in the labor market only worsens the situation.

“Business, I think, does not see that there is any government program for at least six months, which would give people an understanding of what to expect in the event of a change in the situation (with the spread of coronavirus – UNIAN),” she said.

As UNIAN reported, according to the State Statistics Service, since the beginning of the quarantine (March 12) as of August 20, 431.8 thousand Ukrainians have received the status of unemployed, which is 67% more than in the same period last year.

The National Bank of Ukraine forecast a peak in the country’s unemployment rate in the second quarter – up to 11.5%, after which in the second half of the year this figure will decline and in general will be higher than last year, but below 10%.

According to the government’s updated macroeconomic forecast for the next three years, the unemployment rate of the population aged 15 to 70 is projected at 9.2% in 2021, 8.5% in 2022 and 8% in 2023.

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UNIAN

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