The dollar in Ukraine may swing after a new portion of emission hryvnia

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The interbank currency week began with a lull. On May 25, a non-cash dollar lost 1 kopeck, and stopped in the evening at UAH 26.86-26.89 / $.

In the cash market, foreign exchange price tags rose by 5 kopecks: on sale, they were fixed at 26.95-27.05 UAH / $, on purchase – at 26.65-26.75 UAH / $. At the same time, financiers noted a small demand for the “American” from the population.

Cashless trading in Ukraine took place against the backdrop of an idle American market.

In the United States today is Memorial Day, banks do not work and dollar payments are not made. Therefore, we could either conduct transactions only on tom terms, or work through the euro. Therefore, the trading volume was minimal: it dropped from Friday’s $ 100 million to $ 70 million. The National Bank and Citibank were not at the auction.

“Because of the weekend in the USA, we saw a cautious start of cashless trading with a wide spread, low activity, modest volumes and high sensitivity to the exits of large sellers or buyers. In general, the dynamics of quotations was moderate, mainly in the range of 26.85-26.9 UAH / $ “, – commented” Country “the director of the Treasury of Credit Dnepr Bank Oleg Kurinnoy.

At the same time, financiers actively discussed tomorrow’s placement by the Ministry of Finance of domestic government bonds. A reduction in the rate (on average by 0.25% per annum) for these securities is not excluded, and a rather large volume of sales is expected. Indeed, the allocation of a loan tranche from the IMF under the new stand by credit program is postponed for a week or two.

Due to the fact that it must be approved by the leadership of the International Monetary Fund. And the deficit of the Ukrainian budget in May can be large and needs to be covered.

“A sufficiently serious placement of government bonds is not ruled out – for UAH 15-20 billion,” predicted Strana financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.

This is one of the key topics of the day. There were three of them:

• Placement of government bonds. Whether followed by a major refinancing of state-owned buyers of debt securities is unknown. The National Bank issued its loans a little on Friday, May 22: 6 banks received 1.46 billion UAH for 84 days. But experts are sure that these are funds for the current liquidity of small banks. Much more substantial amounts can be lent for large government bonds.

• Five IMF conditions for the allocation of the second loan tranche: the work of state banks on credit defaults (read – knocking out Kolomoisky’s debts to Privatbank), changing the charter of Naftogaz, registering legal entities in tax and customs, a new competitive selection process for members of the High Council of Justice ( to allow international experts to select members of the WWW) and a report on the financing of measures to combat COVID-19. The most difficult to fulfill were called banking requirements and requirements for VSP. And in the financial market, this led to rumors that there might not be new tranches (after the first of 1.9 billion, which will go to cover the budget deficit).

• The expected reduction by the National Bank on June 11 of its discount rate from 8% to 6%, and a slight increase in inflation in Ukraine, necessary for industrial producers.

“We need to warm up inflation a little, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said this today. But, of course, everything needs to be done carefully and carefully so that the consumer price index does not stop at 20%. The National Bank has all the tools for this,” assured Nemerzhitsky .

By the way, the topic of inflation is actively discussed around the world. The West also wants to raise prices to support manufacturers. To support business and reduce the cost of public debt. True, all this creates serious macroeconomic risks on a global scale.

“The most important thing in the future crisis is that the world has nothing to cure inflation. The world economy today is almost completely defenseless against inflation. After all, the world, according to various estimates, has accumulated debts ranging from 300% to 400% of GDP. The world printed a huge amount of money, which It’s impossible to withdraw, because even assuming that the US Federal Reserve sharply raises its interest rate, this action will not reduce the Fed’s balance, because he bought US government debt for printed dollars, and the regulator will have to sell the American public debt to withdraw these dollars from the housekeeper. the action will bring America’s debt market down, ”said Mikhail Fedorov, an analyst at Univer Investment Group.

Whether the President of the United States Donald Trump decides on this – experts do not dare to predict. However, the chorus says that there is a chance for such a scenario in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Ukraine, inflation is still oriented at 6-7%, but this indicator will definitely increase with further emission of the hryvnia, which is still going quite slowly. It does not affect the hryvnia course due to the slow removal of coronavirus restrictions and the sluggish buildup of the business, which will come to its senses for a long time after quarantine.

The main consumers of the dollar in Ukraine are foreign government bonds holders and speculators. Exchange rate forecasts mainly depend on their actions.

For tomorrow, May 26, financiers predict interbank trading within the range of 26.85-26.95 UAH / $.

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