Scientists predict when the incidence of COVID-19 will decline in Ukraine – Espresso TV news

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                                The team of the project "FORSITE COVID-19" of the World Data Center "Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development" at KPI. Igor Sikorsky predicts a decline in the incidence of coronavirus in Ukraine in late May                                </p><div>

                                <p>This was reported by the press service <a href="https://kpi.ua/node/18073" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NTUU "KPI"</a>.

According to scientists, the beginning of the decline of the coronavirus pandemic in Ukraine may occur in the third decade of May 2020.

According to the forecast, for Ukraine in the 15-day period (06.05.20 – 20.05.20) the nature of the pandemic becomes clearer linear with the level of “plateau” – 400-550 new infected per day.

According to the results of forecasting, this nature of the process may continue until the third decade of May 2020, during which the pandemic is likely to peak.

“After that, the pandemic is likely to decline, with the number of people recovering daily steadily increasing the number of people infected daily,” the forecast said.

For the city of Kyiv, during the 15-day period (06.05.20 – 20.05.20) the process of pandemic development is still more non-stationary with the probable decrease in its volatility and the acquisition of a clearer linear character next week with the level of “plateau” – 40- 50 new infected per day.

The number of daily recovered people in Ukraine is approaching the number of daily infected people, although on 14.05.20 this balance was even positive for one day. Scientists expect that in the third decade of May, this balance may become consistently positive, indicating the beginning of a pandemic decline.

The results of short-term predictive modeling of the number of patients with COVID-19 in Ukraine and Kyiv on 16.05.20 – 20.05.20 were obtained using a multilayer neural network Back Propagation based on the mechanism of “sliding window” with the number of data points for learning neural network – 12.

The average absolute error in the percentage of the forecast for the fifteen-day period (06.05.20 – 20.05.20) does not exceed 2.2%.

  • We will remind, as of 9:00 on May 16 in Ukraine 17 858 cases of a disease on a coronavirus, 497 – lethal are recorded.

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